Tokyo Rebounds 748 Points by Lunch After Tuesday’s 841-Point Slide

01 · Market Snapshot

The Nikkei 225 closed October 20 at 64,075.42, down 841.28 points (1.30%). TOPIX finished at 4,009.21, down 58.27 points (1.43%). Both are confirmed final closes. The Nikkei ended its October 21 morning session at 64,823.55, up 748.13 points (1.17%). A public 10:30 a.m. TOPIX report gave 4,060.05, up 50.84 points; an independently verified 11:30 TOPIX value was not available.

At noon October 21, the afternoon cash session had not begun. The October 20 reference close for the 10-year JGB yield was 2.894%; a synchronized October 21 noon yield was unavailable. Dollar-yen public observations were near ¥158.20–¥158.30 during the morning.

02 · What Moved Tokyo

October 20 was a broad selloff. Anxiety about the profitability of AI infrastructure spending weighed on semiconductor equipment and testing, cables, communications and banks. On the Prime Market, 1,181 stocks fell against 335 gainers; TOPIX dropped more than the Nikkei in percentage terms.

October 21 brought a rebound as better U.S. corporate earnings and some easing in oil supported risk appetite. The Nikkei had recouped 748 points by lunch, but not all of Tuesday’s 841-point loss.

03 · Today’s Market Mover

Advantest (6857) was a central contributor to the morning recovery: its estimated positive Nikkei contribution at lunch was 94.93 points, ahead of Tokyo Electron (8035) at 91.02 and SoftBank Group (9984) at 80.91.

Index contribution is not the stock’s percentage return. Confidence is high in reported contribution rankings and medium that the rebound reflects sector-wide risk repricing rather than a new company-specific disclosure.

04 · Sector Pulse

Tuesday’s losses extended to electrical equipment, information and communications, nonferrous metals and banks. The price-weighted Nikkei alone did not capture the depth of selling.

By 11 a.m. Wednesday, public reporting had 24 of 33 industry groups higher, led by nonferrous metals, banks, precision instruments and electronics. Those were intraday observations, not closing-sector rankings.

05 · Yen Watch

Dollar-yen was around ¥158.10 near Tuesday’s Tokyo close. Wednesday-morning public readings were around the lower ¥158s. Different quote timestamps should not be treated as a single noon fixing.

A weaker yen can help exporters translate earnings, but also raises the yen cost of imported energy and food. Those opposing effects matter to businesses and households even when stocks rebound.

06 · Rates / JGB Watch

A well-supported October 20 auction of 20-year JGBs suggested appetite for long duration at prevailing yields. Separately, the October 20 10-year yield reference was about 2.894%. Maturities and timestamps are different.

Bond prices usually rise when yields fall. One auction cannot settle Japan’s fiscal outlook, and banks and insurers can respond differently depending on balance-sheet exposures.

07 · Global Handoff

After Tokyo closed October 20, Wall Street ended with the Dow up 1.02% and S&P 500 up 0.28%, while the Nasdaq composite slipped around 0.02%. Strong corporate earnings and caution toward megacap technology coexisted.

This overseas reaction shaped the next morning in Tokyo. It cannot be cited retroactively as the cause of Tuesday’s Tokyo close. Regional equities rebounded on Wednesday in public global-market reporting.

08 · Policy / BOJ Watch

Investors are watching the Bank of Japan’s late-October policy meeting and possible inflation outlook changes. Expectations are not official policy decisions.

The combination of wage growth, the yen, import prices and government borrowing costs matters more than any single intraday quote.

09 · Publisher’s Market Note

A rebound after a steep drop is easy to label a turning point. Japan’s harder question is how an equity market led by AI optimism will adjust to higher interest rates and expensive capital.

I want to watch the companies left behind by today’s rebound as closely as the stars leading it. The Nikkei is not the entire economy.

10 · Before the Next Open

Watch whether Wednesday’s afternoon breadth and turnover support the morning rebound; follow Advantest, Tokyo Electron and SoftBank Group for continued leadership.

Monitor USD/JPY around the ¥158 zone, oil, U.S. earnings and government-bond yields. Treat future BOJ and MOF announcements as facts only when officially released.

11 · Sources and Method

Original market journalism based on public information. Each figure is labeled as final, morning close or timestamped intraday.

1. 日経平均・10月20日確定値
2. 21日前引け・株探公開報道
3. 10月20日大引け・共同通信
4. 財務省・国債
5. 日本銀行・金融政策

12 · Archive Entry