SoftBank lifts the Nikkei
while TOPIX slips

Thursday ended with a weaker Nikkei but stronger TOPIX; Friday has flipped that relationship

Data checked

2026-09-04 13:00 JST / 2026-09-03 21:00 PDT. The Nikkei uses Nikkei Indexes' 12:46 official intraday quote; TOPIX is the 11:30 morning close; FX and JGB readings are nearby public snapshots and are not synchronized.

Lower yields rescued high-priced tech, but a stronger yen did not rescue the whole market

Wall Street rallied on September 3 after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would favor leaving rates unchanged if incoming data confirms disinflation. The Dow rose 1.18%, the S&P 500 gained 1.06% and the Nasdaq climbed 1.40%, while Treasury yields eased.

Tokyo took that message directly into its highest-duration, AI-sensitive shares. After four straight Nikkei declines, bargain hunting also helped. SoftBank Group, Kioxia and electronics names led the rebound.

But the yen simultaneously strengthened into the 155s. That is helpful for import costs and painful for exporters' translated earnings. Thursday's winners in trading houses, resources and value shares also saw profit-taking. The result: a strong Nikkei and a weaker TOPIX.

SoftBank Group (9984) — one stock dramatically amplifies the Nikkei rebound

SoftBank Group ended the morning at ¥5,515, up ¥514 or 10.27%. Public market commentary earlier in the session estimated that the stock alone was adding roughly 300 points to the Nikkei.

The drivers were layered: Arm rose about 3.3% in U.S. trading; lower Treasury and JGB yields reduced the valuation pressure on long-duration growth assets; and global risk appetite toward AI rebounded. Separately, SoftBank's ¥1 trillion seven-year retail bond, announced on August 24, was scheduled to have its final terms set on September 4, keeping funding costs in focus.

The broader significance is index construction. The Nikkei is price weighted. A 10% move in a high-impact constituent can make the benchmark look much healthier than the average listed stock. Friday's negative TOPIX and negative Prime-market breadth make that distinction unusually clear.

Confidence: High

September 3 had been almost the opposite rotation: wholesale, utilities, shipping, petroleum and insurance were among the stronger groups, while mining and nonferrous metals lagged. Leadership has changed in less than one session.

From ¥157.37 at Thursday's Tokyo snapshot to the ¥155s overnight

Dollar-yen was around 157.37 at 3:38 PM JST on September 3. The yen then accelerated overnight, reaching 155.25 per dollar in Asian morning trade on September 4 before easing to around 156.00 by late morning.

Reuters found no clear evidence of a new official intervention and reported that traders were instead repricing the Bank of Japan toward a more hawkish September meeting. Market pricing put the chance of a September move near 75%, but that is an expectation, not a BOJ decision.

The stronger yen is a mixed Japan signal: it softens the imported-energy and food shock from $90-plus oil, while reducing the translation benefit enjoyed by exporters. That dual effect helps explain why a tech-heavy Nikkei can rise while the broader market struggles.

The 10-year backs away from 3%, but the old low-rate regime is not coming back

Public September 3 close summaries differed slightly on the new 10-year JGB yield — 2.947% versus 2.965% — so this report treats the close as roughly 2.95–2.97%. Both are below the prior 3.010% reference close.

On September 4 morning, the 10-year yield fell to roughly 2.920%, tracking gains in U.S. Treasuries. That easing was directly supportive for SoftBank and other high-valuation shares.

The Ministry of Finance's September 3 30-year auction carried a 4.0% coupon. The weighted-average accepted price was 98.93, equivalent to 4.079%, and the lowest accepted price was 98.65, or 4.100%. Reuters calculated a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.79 times. Demand was adequate enough to calm the super-long end, though not strong enough to erase the market's new term-premium debate.

Japan has now tested a 3% 10-year yield. That level can flow into bank margins, mortgages, corporate borrowing, insurer portfolios and future government interest expense. A one-day yield retreat does not undo that structural change.

Wall Street rallied; Europe is not open yet; U.S. payrolls are the next global hinge

U.S. stocks closed strongly higher on September 3: Dow 53,686.11 (+1.18%), S&P 500 7,747.71 (+1.06%), Nasdaq Composite 26,584.06 (+1.40%). The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield eased to around 4.762%.

Reuters' Asia wrap showed Japanese, Korean and Chinese equities generally firmer, while the yen had gained about 2.6% for the week. Brent remained around $95 a barrel, meaning the Middle East energy-inflation risk has not disappeared.

At 1 PM JST, European cash markets have not opened. So the useful handoff for this edition is from Thursday's U.S. close into Friday's Asia session. The next major global repricing event is the U.S. August payroll report later Friday.

The yen is stronger, but BOJ tightening expectations remain alive

The BOJ's next policy meeting is September 17–18. Board member Hajime Takata spoke in Sapporo on September 2 about Japan's economy, prices and monetary policy, reinforcing market focus on the pace of normalization.

The BOJ's current guideline is already an overnight call rate of around 1.0%, following June's rate increase. Japan is no longer operating in a zero-rate environment.

Friday's combination — stronger yen, lower JGB yields and persistent expectations of another BOJ move — reflects a relative-rates story. U.S. hike expectations have softened after Waller's comments while Japan tightening expectations remain. That is supportive for the yen and more complicated for Japanese equities.

A 700-point Nikkei gain can describe a very different Japan depending on who is doing the lifting

Thursday gave us a weaker Nikkei and stronger TOPIX as trading houses, utilities, shipping and financials recovered. Friday morning gave us the reverse: SoftBank and AI-heavy names lift the Nikkei while TOPIX slips.

That is a useful reminder that “Japan stocks” are not one trade. Japan is simultaneously a higher-rate banking story, an AI investment story, an exporter story, an energy-import story and a domestic-demand story.

The index number is the headline. The rotation underneath it is the economy.

Japan.co.jp analysis. Not investment advice.

• U.S. August payrolls: consensus centers around 56,000 new jobs; a weak number could extend the yield decline and yen strength.
• Dollar-yen near 155: 155.20 is near the post-intervention July low; a break or rebound will matter for exporters.
• SoftBank durability: whether a 10% morning surge can hold after the initial AI/yield repricing.
• TOPIX breadth: whether banks, trading houses and other Thursday leaders stabilize and broaden the rally.
• The 3% JGB line: whether 2.92% holds or U.S. data pushes the 10-year back toward 3%.